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Treasury Views


Weekly Market View

Weekly Market View

Monday, December 17, 2018


December 10: Fidelity Investments' money market presence grew larger as of October 31, adding $50 billion to bring it to $629 billion. Fidelity’s money market balances are now almost twice as big as its closest competitor, the Vanguard Group. Rising interest rates in the short maturity part of the U.S. Treasury and Agency curve are providing the fuel for the growth as they compete with stocks and bonds.

December 11: In a chaotic and confrontational televised meeting between President Trump and Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, President Trump said that “I will be the one to shut it down,” referring to shutting down the government if the president did not get the funds for his border wall.

December 12: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won a confidence vote, but it is still uncertain how Brexit will be accomplished to make all parties happy. The European Union (EU) did state that in the event of a “no-deal Brexit,” it will allow London’s derivatives clearing houses like LCH to continue to serve large EU banks for 12 months to avoid market disruptions.

Wednesday also saw President Trump’s ex-lawyer Michael Cohen sentenced to three years in prison. He said he would not accept a pardon from the president if it was offered.

December 13: PIMCO – the giant West coast money manager – sees the chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months having risen to about 30 percent. The highest level in this 9-year-old expansion according to economists Joachim Fels and Andrew Balls. They saw U.S. growth falling below 2 percent in the second half of 2019 and a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes in the first half of 2019.

December 14: A sharp decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average put the market in correction territory as three major indexes closed the week lower, putting all three more than 3 percent below their peaks.

Banking & Economic News

U.S. Military Sends $331 Million Bill to Saudis, UAE After Refueling Accounting Error
Learn more (December 13, 2018;

Chinese-Venezuelan Joint Venture Doubles Oil Production
Learn more (December 14, 2018;

Maria Buntina Admits Conspiring as Kremlin Agent Targeting GOP, NRA
Learn more (December 14, 2018;

Facebook Reveals Bug Exposed 6.8 Million Users’ Photos
Learn more (December 14, 2018;

China Seeks to Defuse Trade War with Reversals on Cars and Corn
Learn more (December 14, 2018;

Fed to Slow 2019 Rate Hikes Amid Downside Risks, Poll Shows
Learn more (December 14, 2018;



December 17 (All times are CT)
  • Empire Manufacturing at 7:30 a.m.
  • National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index at 9:00 a.m.
  • Net Long-term TIC Flows at 3:00 p.m.
  • Total Net TIC Flows at 3:00 p.m.
December 18
  • Building Permits at 7:30 a.m.
  • Housing Starts at 7:30 a.m..
December 19
  • Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications at 6:00 a.m.
  • Existing Home Sales at 9:00 a.m.
  • Current Account Balance at 7:30 a.m.
  • Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision at 1:00 p.m.
  • Interest Rate on Excess Reserves at 1:00 p.m
December 20
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort at 8:45 a.m.
  • Bloomberg Economic Expectations at 8:45 a.m.
  • Continuing Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Leading Index at 9:00 a.m.
  • Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Business Outlook at 7:30 a.m.
December 21
  • University of Michigan Current Conditions at 9:00 a.m.
  • University of Michigan Sentiment at 9:00 a.m.
  • Federal Reserve of Kansas City Manufacturing Activity at 10:00 a.m.
  • Durable Goods Orders at 7:30 a.m.
  • Gross Domestic Product Annualized at 7:30 a.m.
  • Personal Consumption at 7:30 a.m.
  • Gross Domestic Product Price Index at 7:30 a.m.
  • Personal Income at 9:00 a.m.
  • Personal Spending at 9:00 a.m.
  • Real Personal Spending at 9:00 a.m.

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