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Treasury Views

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Weekly Market View

Weekly Market View

Monday, June 18, 2018

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THE WEEK THAT WAS

June 11 : President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participated in the Group of Seven Summit. They agreed to work toward “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” The U.S. promised some security guarantees and would end what Trump calls “war games” with South Korea.

June 12: Markets shrugged after the historic meeting between President Trump and North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un. They both signed an agreement where Kim Jung Un reaffirmed his “unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” in exchange for security guarantees from the President Trump. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2 points and Treasury rates barely budged across the curve after a very average 30-year bond auction.

June 13: The Federal Reserve increased their target fed funds range by 25 basis points, and as expected, also increased the interest rate on excess reserves by only 20 basis points to 1.95 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee also increased their “dot” plot to indicate three instead of four total rate hikes in 2018. Equities dropped slightly and rates moved up only about 1 to 3 basis points across the curve in flattening move as the 10-year stayed below 3.00 percent ending at 2.98 percent.

June 14: The 118th U.S. Open golf tournament started today at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island, New York, and with winds of up to 30 miles per hour, many of the top players in the world struggled on treacherous greens and ended up shooting scores of +5 to +9 in their opening rounds. The World Cup also started today as Russia, the host country, beat Saudi Arabia 5-0 in the first game.

June 15: President Trump approved tariffs on roughly $50 billion of Chinese goods, prompting a terse statement from China that Beijing will in turn launch tariffs on American goods in “equal scale and equal strength” to the U.S. measures. Beijing did not indicate which American products will be levied and the White House warned that it will impose additional tariffs if China takes retaliatory measures.

Banking & Economic News

With or Without Time Warner, AT&T Stock Isn’t Worth Buying
Learn more (June 13, 2018; finance.yahoo.com)

Powell Lauds Economy as Fed Nudges Up Interest-Rate Hike Path
Learn more (June 13, 2018; bloomberg.com)

Rolls-Royce Is Cutting About 4,000 Jobs in Restructuring
Learn more (June 13, 2018; bloomberg.com)

2026 World Cup Coming to U.S, Mexico, Canada as Joint Bid Wins Vote
Learn more (June 13, 2018; espn.com)

Americans Are Spending like Mad Again
Learn more ((June 14, 2018; money.cnn.com)

 

 

THE WEEK TO COME

June 18 (All times are CT)
  • National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index at 9:00 a.m.
June 19
  • Housing Starts at 7:30 a.m.
  • Building Permits at 7:30 a.m.
June 20
  • Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications at 6:00 a.m.
  • Current Account Balance at 7:30 a.m.
  • Existing Home Sales at 9:00 a.m.
June 21
  • Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook at 7:30 a.m.
  • Continuing Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index at 8:00 a.m.
  • Bloomberg Economic Expectations at 8:45 a.m.
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort at 8:45 a.m.
  • Leading Index at 9:00 a.m.
June 22
  • US Manufacturing Private Mortgage Insurance at 8:45 a.m.
  • US Services Private Mortgage Insurance at 8:45 a.m.
  • US Composite Private Mortgage Insurance at 8:45 a.m.

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