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Weekly Market View

Weekly Market View

Monday, June 10, 2019

THE WEEK THAT WAS

June 3: St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard said it may be appropriate for the Fed to cut the fed funds target rate soon to boost inflation. He also stated that this could help re-center inflation expectations, and could also provide some insurance against global risks.

June 4: U.S. equities finally became oversold enough to recover from a declining rate on Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 500 points. The drop in points for treasury yields, on the other hand, helped boost market sentiment after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave remarks at a Chicago conference indicating that the Fed is monitoring the implications of global trade tensions and is ready to act if needed.

June 5: Wednesday saw a rise in share prices in the treasury curve after conflicting economic reports. U.S. equities continued to rally on hopes for an eventual fed funds rate cut. Early in the day, the May Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report was released, showing an increase of 27,000 points – well below estimates for a 185,000-point increase. However, later in the morning the Non-Manufacturing Institute of Supply Management (ISM) was released and showed a surprise increase; the index jumped 1.4 points to 56.9.

June 6: The European Central Bank (ECB) underwhelmed bank officials who hoped the ECB interest rates would trend positively at their central bank meeting on Thursday. However, several officials did raise the prospect of interest rate cuts or restarting quantitative easing. Therefore, the governing council said in a statement that they expect key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels through the first half of 2020 and that long-term bank loans may be able to fall as low as the deposit rate of negative 40 basis points (bps) plus 10 bps (or negative 30 bps).

June 7: Phone records and disclosure of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s calendar revealed that President Trump spoke with Mr. Powell by phone in April, during a period when the presidential administration escalated pressure on the central bank to keep interest rates low. The calendar, however, only reveals the date and time of the call and no additional details. The Fed and the White House declined to comment.

Banking & Economic News

Oil Plunges Back into Bear Market
Learn more (June 6, 2019; cnn.com)

U.S. Farmers Face 'Huge' Impact from Flooding
Learn more (June 6, 2019; finance.yahoo.com)

House Democrats to Make It Easier to Take White House to Court
Learn more (June 6, 2019; cnn.org)

The Job Market Is Still Strong, But There Are Signs It's Slowing Down
Learn more (June 6, 2019; cnn.com)

Trump Calls for Mexico to ‘Step Up’ as U.S. Trade Talks Extended
Learn more (June 6, 2019; bloomberg.com)

 

 

 

THE WEEK TO COME

June 10 (All times are CT)
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnonver Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings at 9:00 a.m.
June 11
  • National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism at 5:00 a.m.
  • Price Per Index (PPI) Final Demand at 7:30 a.m.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy at 7:30 a.m.
June 12
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Applications at 6:00 a.m.
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 7:30 a.m.
  • CPI Core Index SA at 7:30 a.m.
  • CPI Index NSA at 7:30 a.m.
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings Year-Over-Year at 7:30 a.m.
  • Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 p.m.
June 13
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort at 8:45 a.m.
  • Continuing Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m.
  • Import Price Index at 7:30 a.m.
  • Export Price Index at 7:30 a.m.
  • Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey at 8:45 a.m.
June 14
  • University of Michigan One-Year Inflation at 9:00 a.m.
  • University of Michigan five- to 10-Year Inflation at 9:00 a.m.
  • University of Michigan Current Conditions at 9:00 a.m.
  • University of Michigan Expectations at 9:00 a.m.
  • University of Michigan Sentiment at 9:00 a.m.
  • Retail Sales Advance at 7:30 a.m.
  • Retail Sales Control Group at 7:30 a.m.
  • Business Inventories at 9:00 a.m.
  • Industrial Production at 8:15 a.m.
  • Capacity Utilization at 8:15 a.m.
  • Manufacturing Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Production at 8:15 a.m.

 

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